The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

Coordination as showcasing: the establishment of Norway’s Afghanistan Forum

In complex operations such as the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, where multiple government ministries are involved in putting together a state’s contributions, the use of national-level coordination bodies has become more widespread. Research has taken for granted that the rationale behind these bodies reflects their declared aim – enhanced coordination as a means to improve mission effectiveness. However, they appear to have had modest effect on coordination. That notwithstanding, they seem to remain popular. This prompts us to ask why such bodies are actually established. This article – based on in-depth interviews and archival records – critically explores the establishment of Norway’s ad hoc, inter-ministerial, political-level Afghanistan Forum. Distinguishing between a structural-instrumental, a cultural-institutional and an environmental perspective from organizational theory to structure the analysis, this article shows that the declared purpose of the forum, inter-ministerial coordination, proved less important than showcasing coordination efforts and keeping the coalition together. In addition, national traditions in handling coordination challenges in the central government apparatus and powerful international reforms helped bring the forum about. This has implications for research on the rationale and effectiveness of these bodies, and also for understanding their policy relevance.     

全语言思路对大学英语教学的启示

全语言思路是国外语言教学界颇有影响的一种教学理念,上世纪被介绍到我国,但是在大学英语教学方面实践较少。笔者通过对国内外有关文献的综述,给读者介绍了这一思路的基本观点和教学原则,并结合自身的体会,对目前争论激烈的大学英语教学改革提出了一些建议。     

固定目标区域的空中干扰机最优干扰覆盖分布算法

GPS干扰机升空可以增大干扰覆盖面积使干扰效果显著,GPS空中干扰机的合理分布可以有效地实现对目标区域的干扰覆盖.通过分析空中干扰机所能达到的干扰覆盖能力,进而运用遗传算法在解决多目标组合优化问题上的灵活性,提出了基于固定目标区域的空中干扰机最优干扰覆盖分布算法.仿真结果表明该算法能够快速有效地得到最优干扰覆盖分布方案.     

空间机器人抓捕任务的六自由度同步控制逼近策略

利用空间机器人抓捕目标卫星是航天器在轨服务的主要模式之一.针对空间机器人对无控旋转卫星的抓捕逼近问题,为了提高适合抓捕的时间范围,研究了六自由度(6-DOF)同步控制逼近策略.采用修正罗德里格斯参数描述姿态,给出了无控旋转卫星的运动模型;假设空间机器人采用动量轮控制姿态,通过分开处理轨道同步和姿态同步建立了6-DOF同步控制问题模型;考虑惯量参数的不确定性,利用自适应输出反馈控制原理,分别推导了轨道同步和姿态同步跟踪控制律.仿真算例表明在空间机器人惯量参数不确定和摄动作用下可以有效实现同步跟踪.     

试论武警院校的教学督导机制

教学督导是院校提高教学质量的重要措施之一，它对各院校的教学质量和人才培养质量起着重要的监督作用。有效发挥教学督导的监督及指导功能，必须以对督导工作主要内容的把握为基础，在坚持督导原则的情况下，进一步改进督导工作的方式方法。     

基于公平谓词法的JMS消息过滤改进算法

研究了JMS发布／订阅消息传递模式的工作机制，分析了JMS在对事件进行匹配时的过滤算法，针对该算法的不足提出了采用公平谓词法来改进JMS的消息过滤速度，改进方法对基于JMS的发布／订阅应用程序的开发具有一定的指导意义。     

基于正交试验的大型降落伞开伞冲击载荷影响因素分析

对大型伞开伞过程冲击载荷的影响因素灵敏度进行研究.采用充气时间法对降落伞的充气过程进行建模,并运用正交试验设计方法设计了数值试验来分析初始条件、回收物参数、减速伞参数、主伞参数和环境条件等21个影响因素对主伞和减速伞的2次开伞力峰值、主伞开伞时刻动压等5个指标的影响及灵敏度.通过对比4组不同初始条件的数值试验结果,提出了影响减速伞和主伞开伞冲击载荷的主要因素,并具体分析了各个因素的影响方式.     

烧损度比较法在火灾原因重新认定中的应用

通过在一起火灾原因重新认定的现场勘验中充分应用比较法，对不同位置的同类物品、同类物品不同的变色、炭化痕迹进行烧损度的比较，从火场中准确查找出火灾蔓延方向，印证了证人证言，同时也为火灾原因提供了痕迹支持，最后通过模拟实验验证了认定结论的准确性。     

Knowledge-oriented modeling for influencing factors of battle damage in military industrial logistics: An integrated method

Modeling influencing factors of battle damage is one of essential works in implementing military industrial logistics simulation to explore battle damage laws knowledge. However, one of key challenges in designing the simulation system could be how to reasonably determine simulation model input and build a bridge to link battle damage model and battle damage laws knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel knowledge-oriented modeling method for influencing factors of battle damage in military industrial logistics, integrating conceptual analysis, conceptual modeling, quantitative modeling and simulation implementation. We conceptualize influencing factors of battle damage by using the principle of hierarchical decomposition, thus classifying the related battle damage knowledge logically. Then, we construct the conceptual model of influencing factors of battle damage by using Entity-Relationship approach, thus describing their interactions reasonably. Subsequently, we extract the important influencing factors by using social network analysis, thus evaluating their importance quantitatively and further clarifying the elements of simulation. Finally, we develop an agent-based military industry logistics simulation system by taking the modeling results on influencing factors of battle damage as simulation model input, and obtain simulation model output, i.e., new battle damage laws knowledge, thus verifying feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that this method can be used to support human decision-making and action.